Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
